IS THE YIELD OF POTATO (Solanum tuberosum) IN ECUADOR INFLUENCED BY CLIMATIC, GENETIC AND CROP TECHNOLOGY FACTORS?

Authors

Victor Mario García-Mora 1Grupo de Investigación GDETERRA. Facultad de Recursos Naturales. Escuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7137-8623
Mercy Ilbay- Yupa 2Grupo de Recursos Hídricos. Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias y Recursos Naturales. Universidad Técnica de Cotopaxi. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9503-2686
Raúl Armando Ramos Veintimilla Docente. Facultad de Recursos Naturales. Escuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5181-1039

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33936/revbasdelaciencia.v8i2.5403

Keywords:

papa, regresión lineal múltiple, rendimiento, Ecuador

Abstract

In this study, the multiple regression model was generated to predict the yield of potato (Solanum tuberosum) crop in Ecuador, using the annual production record of the Agricultural Surface and Production Surveys for the period 2002-2019. The independent variables considered were the area sown with different types of seed (variety), cultivation practices, sales volume and area sown, lost and harvested. The results show that yield is influenced by five independent variables such as: improved seed, irrigation, fertilizer application, frost and others. The multiple regression model has a good fit with a coefficient of determination of 0.86, an RMSE of 1.014 ton/ha and a significantly low MAE (0.024 ton/ha), which helps verify the arrangement of the model. On the other hand, the evaluation of the yield increase (p≤0.01) revealed average annual growth rates between 0.87 and 2.07% for the provinces of Tungurahua (0.87%), Pichincha (1.26%), Chimborazo (1.54%), Carchi (1.71%), Cotopaxi (1.91%) and Bolívar (2.07%). Potato crop yield prediction in Ecuador focuses mainly on the influence of climatic and genetic factors. It is important that policy actions allow farmers to have access to credit and favor the use of crop management technologies such as irrigation, fertilization and phytosanitary controls.

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